Who is the one speeding?

Lisanud Annegrete 2018/03/18

New blog post series “Open Data and Data Journalism” will open with this post. The goal of this series is to analyze open data and give examples of what can be answered. Mainly I will use open data from OKEE Github, here you can add your open data needs and known sources. First post will be about Estonian Police data bounded with Road Administration data to answer hypothesis about speeding.

In Estonia people know that young guys with BMWs are the ones who are speeding. But is it just a rumor or can we back it up with data?

Since the end of last year Estonian police publishes crime data to their website, this includes speeding tickets.

In 2017 there were almost 34 thousand registered speedings what is much less than previous years. Because of Estonia Presidency of the Council of the European Union police didn’t have so much resources to contribute to traffic supervision.

Of those speedings 89% were made with cars and 78% with cars that were registered in Estonia. Those are the one we look closer.

The top car makes for speeding:

  1. BMW
  2. VOLKSWAGEN
  3. AUDI
  4. TOYOTA
  5. MERCEDES-BENZ

But those cars are really popular in Estonia. Do BMW owners speed more than others? For that we will look into cars registered in Estonia. Data is available on the Road Administration website.

How to read this graph? Each point in the graph is one car make. On X-axis there are the number of cars registered in Estonia and on Y-axis the number of registered speedings with this make. The make that is to the far right is the most popular car in Estonia. The further up is the point, the more speedings does the make have. The grey line shows the Estonian average (37 speedings for 1000 cars). If the make is higher than the line, then with that make more speedings are done than average. If it is below the line, then less than average.

In the graph there are all the makes that have more than 10 000 cars, the rest are under „other”.

The speedings vary depending on the car make. If it didn’t all makes would be on the line.

The furthest make from the line is BMW. This means the BMW is used for speeding most often – 74 speedings for 1000 cars. Volkswagen stays on the other side of the line, it is used less than average (33 speedings for 1000 cars). And it is in speeding top only because it is the most popular make in Estonia.

In reality, there are some marks that are even more popular for speeding than BMW but don’t have so many cars in Estonia. For example Porche and Lexus with 118 and 85 speedings to 1000 cars accordingly.

Interesting remark: There were fewer speedings in 2017 than there were in 2016, but the registered car number has gone up by more than 20 thousand. The speeding rate has fallen because of both reasons.

But what about the theory of the young men?

The most speedings are from men in their 26-34. It’s not reasonable to look only absolute numbers. There are many drivers in that group.

For more honest picture we should look at speedings per 1000 drivers or at least driving license owners. Road Administration doesn’t give out that data with regularity. When we can get that data, we can answer that question.

What else can be investigated in police data? Are there any other datasets that this can be bound to? 

The Open Data Portal's content is created as part of the EU structural funds' programme 'Raising Awareness of Information Society' which is financed through the EU Regional Development Fund. Project activities are carried out by the Open Knowledge Estonia NGO.  

Sources:

https://github.com/okestonia/Data-Viz-Protos/tree/master/kiiruseyletamine

https://opendata.smit.ee/ppa/csv/liiklusjarelevalve_2.csv

https://www.mnt.ee/sites/default/files/content-editors/Failid/statistika/s6idukid/arvel-m1_311217.xlsx

https://www.mnt.ee/sites/default/files/content-editors/Failid/statistika/s6idukid/arvel_m1-311216_maht.csv